Global trade is set to cross a historic threshold in 2025. According to UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update (December 2025), the combined value of international trade in goods and services is expected to exceed US$35 trillion, marking the strongest annual performance in history and highlighting the resilience of global commerce despite geopolitical fragmentation and economic uncertainty.
The projected 7% annual growth reflects a world economy that has adapted to shocks—but it also raises critical questions about the durability of this momentum beyond 2025.
A Recovery Built on Volumes, Not Prices
UNCTAD’s report makes a crucial distinction: unlike earlier post-pandemic rebounds driven by inflation and supply constraints, late-2025 trade growth is primarily volume-driven. Prices of traded goods eased in the final quarter, meaning that expanding trade values increasingly reflect real economic activity rather than nominal distortions.
Services trade emerged as the fastest-growing segment, expanding by nearly 9%, supported by the globalization of digital services, cross-border professional work, logistics, and tourism-related recovery. Goods trade continued to grow, but with widening divergence across sectors and regions.
The Multipolarisation of Global Trade
Perhaps the most consequential insight from UNCTAD’s analysis is the accelerating shift toward a multipolar trade system. East Asia led global growth, supported by resilient manufacturing ecosystems and expanding regional trade networks. Africa’s trade momentum strengthened, reflecting increased commodity demand and infrastructure-linked trade flows.
Most notably, South–South trade expanded significantly, reducing reliance on traditional North Atlantic trade corridors. This shift is gradually reshaping global supply chains, investment patterns, and geopolitical trade alignments.
Winners, Losers, and Structural Transitions
The report highlights electronics and advanced manufacturing as clear winners, propelled by AI-driven capital expenditure cycles and digital infrastructure investments. Agriculture rebounded strongly after recent volatility, reinforcing food security and commodity trade as stabilizing forces in global commerce.
By contrast, the automotive sector struggled, with both conventional and electric vehicle trade declining. This reflects deeper structural uncertainty surrounding global mobility transitions, cost pressures, and uneven policy support across regions.
These contrasts underscore that while aggregate trade is booming, sectoral transformation remains uneven and disruptive.
Why the Trade Boom May Be Short-Lived
Despite the record-setting outlook for 2025, UNCTAD issues a clear warning: trade momentum may soften in 2026. Slowing global growth, rising debt burdens, persistent geopolitical conflicts, and elevated trade-related costs pose significant risks.
With price effects fading, sustaining trade growth will depend entirely on real economic expansion, productivity gains, and policy coordination—factors that remain uncertain in an increasingly fragmented world.
NewslyTrend Perspective
The global economy stands at a paradoxical juncture. Trade volumes are reaching historic highs, yet the foundations of that growth appear fragile. The US$35 trillion milestone is both a testament to economic resilience and a reminder of unresolved vulnerabilities.
Whether 2025 marks the beginning of a durable trade renaissance or a cyclical peak before renewed volatility will depend on how governments, businesses, and institutions navigate the coming year. The record has been set—but sustaining it will require far more than momentum alone.
